Scoring Guide

Scoring and Selection Logic

How Top 4 candidates are ranked before lineups are fully confirmed, when the official board locks at first pitch, and how Daily Double, Secondary Double, and Smash Double selections are calculated.

Back
Key Symbols

These are the inputs that appear throughout the formulas below.

AVG
Career BvP batting

The batter's historical batting average against today's pitcher. Higher is better.

AB
Career sample size

Official at-bats against this pitcher. More AB means the matchup history is more trustworthy.

P
Hit probability

Estimated chance the batter records at least one hit after regression and batting order adjustments.

E[AB]
Expected at-bats

Projected chances based on confirmed lineup slot, or an estimated slot when lineup is not official.

Ranking
score=AVG×confidenceconfidence=min(AB30, 1)sort=score ↓, AVG ↓, AB ↓

The ranking score rewards both a strong AVG and enough AB to trust the matchup.

Regression
adjusted AVG=ABAB + 50×AVG+50AB + 50×0.320w=ABAB + 50adjusted AVG=w × AVG + (1 − w) × 0.320

Small samples get pulled toward .320 so a hot but tiny BvP line does not overpower the board.

Expected At-Bats
slot = confirmed slot
or estimated slot
E[AB] = 4.45, slot ≤ 3
E[AB] = 4.25, slot = 4
E[AB] = 4.05, slot 5-6
E[AB] = 3.85, slot ≥ 7

Batters near the top of the order are projected for more trips to the plate, which lifts hit probability.

Hit Chance
P(≥1 hit)=1 − (1 − adjusted AVG)E[AB]Top 4 hit %=100 × P(≥1 hit)

This is the probability-style view of the matchup, which is why it is useful for building doubles.

Double Selection
P(double)=P₁ × P₂with 4 plays=best Top 4 splitwith 2-3 plays=best single pair only

When four locked plays qualify by first pitch, the board compares the possible pairings and promotes the strongest lead double.

Smash Priority
smash = (OPS₁ > .950 ∧ H₁ ≥ 7)
and
(OPS₂ > .950 ∧ H₂ ≥ 7)
if smash exists=smash first, leftovers second

A Smash Double overrides the normal ordering because both legs clear the stronger OPS and hit-history thresholds.